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Billy F

"anyone with insider knowledge, or even particularly good judgment, is unlikely to be mucking around on a low-stakes [tradesports]2

I recall that they (tradesportS) had turnover over $10 million on just one of their futures. Perhaps this is small change to most people who might have inside info, but if you are teh guy on the exit poll or have other prece sensetive info I find it hard to believe that sums of this size = low-stakes for the majority.

Just my 2 cents however.

Billy F

"Could the widespread exaggerated faith in Tradesports be manipulated in order to create a self-fulfilling prophecy?"

This is VERY interesting.

If markets are low volumes, then a little $ invested could swing the price a lot, this in turn could influence some people.

I vaguealy recall this being said at the time of the 2004 election also. Soros selling GW future down or something like it.

Eric

The potential for manipulation is very real, especially given how thin the current-event markets on Tradesports tend to be. There are only seven asks (at 74-75) posted right now on the Libby conviction contract, so for $50 or so you could spike the ask to 100, if only temporarily.

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